SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 39%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 36.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.11%) and 0-2 (6.02%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 2-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew |
36.27% ( 0.04) | 24.73% ( 0.03) | 39% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 58.7% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.57% ( -0.12) | 44.43% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.2% ( -0.12) | 66.8% ( 0.11) |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.9% ( -0.03) | 24.1% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.61% ( -0.04) | 58.39% ( 0.04) |
| Columbus Crew Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.33% ( -0.09) | 22.67% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.69% ( -0.13) | 56.31% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew |
| 2-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.89% 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 2% Total : 36.27% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.72% | 1-2 @ 8.56% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.02% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.24% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 39% |
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