Corinthians may be having an underwhelming domestic season, but they have been solid in the Copa Sudamericana, especially on home soil where they have been perfect.
Bragantino, on the other hand, are on a poor run and will have to take the initiative given that they are trailing in the tie, which is why we think they will be susceptible to fast breaks and lose this clash.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 45.65%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
