Goals have been a constant feature of this fixture over the years, and we expect Thursday's affair to be no different.
That said, we can see Corinthians just about doing enough to come away with a narrow advantage to take into next week's return leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.02) 
