SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 38.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.62%) and 2-0 (4.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
39.36% ( 0.31) | 22.54% ( -0.1) | 38.1% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 67.19% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.54% ( 0.49) | 33.46% ( -0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.74% ( 0.55) | 55.25% ( -0.56) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.24% ( 0.34) | 17.75% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.56% ( 0.59) | 48.44% ( -0.59) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.69% ( 0.11) | 18.3% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.61% ( 0.2) | 49.38% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.24% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.07% Total : 39.36% | 1-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 7% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.47% Total : 22.54% | 1-2 @ 8.1% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.52% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.68% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.87% Total : 38.1% |
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