Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.21%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
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