SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 57.66%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.31%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
57.66% ( 0.48) | 24.04% ( -0.19) | 18.3% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 45.89% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.94% ( 0.33) | 54.05% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.51% ( 0.27) | 75.48% ( -0.27) |
| Cruzeiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.43% ( 0.31) | 18.57% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.16% ( 0.51) | 49.84% ( -0.51) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.36% ( -0.16) | 43.63% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.18% ( -0.13) | 79.82% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
| 1-0 @ 13.64% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.48% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.2% Total : 57.65% | 1-1 @ 11.31% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.67% Total : 24.03% | 0-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.71% Total : 18.3% |
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