SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Danubio win was 1-0 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Progreso |
34.7% ( -0.69) | 28.55% ( 0.18) | 36.76% ( 0.51) |
| Both teams to score 46.14% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.73% ( -0.69) | 60.27% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.56% ( -0.52) | 80.44% ( 0.53) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.26% ( -0.81) | 32.74% ( 0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.71% ( -0.91) | 69.29% ( 0.91) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.6% ( -0.03) | 31.4% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.23% ( -0.03) | 67.77% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.63% Total : 34.69% | 1-1 @ 13.29% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.53% | 0-1 @ 11.9% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 7.7% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.9% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 2.97% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.96% Total : 36.75% |
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