SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 47.51%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 25.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensor Sporting in this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
47.51% ( 0.38) | 27.27% ( -0.14) | 25.21% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 45.52% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.97% ( 0.33) | 59.03% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.51% ( 0.25) | 79.49% ( -0.25) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.08% ( 0.33) | 24.92% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.46% ( 0.46) | 59.54% ( -0.46) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.62% ( -0.04) | 39.37% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.93% ( -0.04) | 76.07% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 13.63% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 8.83% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.39% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.25% Total : 47.51% | 1-1 @ 12.7% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 4.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.64% Total : 27.27% | 0-1 @ 9.14% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0)Other @ 1.44% Total : 25.21% |
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