SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.34%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.
| Result | ||
| De Graafschap | Draw | Vitesse |
47.58% ( 0.12) | 22.13% ( 0.01) | 30.28% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 66.11% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.17% ( -0.14) | 33.83% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.33% ( -0.16) | 55.67% ( 0.16) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.24% ( -0.01) | 14.76% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57% ( -0.02) | 42.99% ( 0.02) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.55% ( -0.15) | 22.44% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.02% ( -0.22) | 55.98% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| De Graafschap | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 9.06% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.78% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.87% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.76% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.4% Total : 47.59% | 1-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.43% Total : 22.13% | 1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.95% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.7% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.25% Total : 30.28% |
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