Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 48.37%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.96%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result
Jong AZ	Draw	De Graafschap
48.37% ( -1.65)	21.45% ( 0.4)	30.18% ( 1.25)

Both teams to score 68.67% (

-0.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.53% (

-1.2)

30.47% (

1.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.25% (

-1.45)

51.75% (

1.45)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.74% (

-0.94)

13.26% (

0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.95% (

-1.93)

40.05% (

1.93)

De Graafschap Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.17% (

0.1)

20.83% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.49% (

0.15)

53.51% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Jong AZ 48.37%

De Graafschap 30.18%

Draw 21.45%

Jong AZ	Draw	De Graafschap
2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.96% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 3.01% ( -0.22) 4-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.15) 4-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.14) 5-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.19% Total : 48.37%	1-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 2.76% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.55% Total : 21.45%	1-2 @ 6.87% ( 0.26) 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.3) 2-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 3.4% ( 0.25) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.13) 2-4 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.06) 3-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.8% Total : 30.18%