SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 56.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 18.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Progreso |
56.26% ( 0.25) | 24.77% ( 0.14) | 18.97% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 44.96% ( -0.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.11% ( -0.97) | 55.89% ( 0.97) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23% ( -0.8) | 77% ( 0.8) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.19% ( -0.28) | 19.81% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.11% ( -0.45) | 51.89% ( 0.45) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.07% ( -1.02) | 43.93% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.93% ( -0.85) | 80.07% ( 0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 14.09% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 11.4% ( 0.23)2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.54% Total : 56.25% | 1-1 @ 11.59% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.62% Total : 24.77% | 0-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.73% Total : 18.97% |
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