SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest Under-21s win with a probability of 67.98%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 15.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.87%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.34%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Nottingham Forest Under-21s |
15.65% ( 0.23) | 16.37% ( 0.13) | 67.98% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 67.45% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 76.31% ( -0.15) | 23.69% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.82% ( -0.2) | 43.18% ( 0.2) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.16% ( 0.15) | 27.84% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.56% ( 0.19) | 63.44% ( -0.19) |
| Nottingham Forest Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.48% ( -0.1) | 6.52% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.67% ( -0.28) | 24.33% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Nottingham Forest Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 4.05% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.73% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.7% Total : 15.65% | 1-1 @ 6.34% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.54% Total : 16.37% | 1-2 @ 8.65% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 7.87% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 6.16% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 5.37% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 5.03% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 4.96% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 4.2% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 2.93% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 2.29% ( -0.04)2-5 @ 1.88% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 1.46% 1-6 @ 1.33% ( -0.03)0-6 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.58% Total : 67.98% |
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