Despite their disappointing performance, last weekend's draw saw Estrela end a three-game losing streak and they will head into Sunday's tie looking to build on that result. The Tricolores take on an out-of-sorts Boavista side and we are backing them to come away with all three points.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 44.44%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.02) 
