Although Arouca enjoyed success in Sousa's first game in charge, last weekend's cup meeting did take place on home turf.
They will lose home advantage for Sunday's league meeting, and with Boavista looking to avenge their cup exit, we think that the determined hosts will do enough to claim a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
1.05) 
-0.23) 
