Chaves will undeniably boast the fresher set of legs heading into Monday's game, but there is hardly anything to separate the two sides in the standings, and we expect that to be reflected in the scoreline.
The visitors are a force to be reckoned with at the back, but their attacking performances often leave something to be desired, and a rejigged Famalicao side who have few problems making the net ripple can strike back to force a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
-0.68) 
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