SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 26.91% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Chaves win was 2-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Braga in this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Braga |
26.91% ( 0.73) | 23.99% ( 0.13) | 49.1% ( -0.85) |
| Both teams to score 56.84% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.07% ( 0) | 44.92% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.72% ( 0) | 67.28% ( -0.01) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.65% ( 0.56) | 30.34% ( -0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.47% ( 0.66) | 66.53% ( -0.66) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.61% ( -0.33) | 18.39% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.47% ( -0.56) | 49.53% ( 0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.06% Total : 26.91% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 5.58% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.98% | 1-2 @ 9.54% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 8% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 5.39% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 3.21% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.28% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.91% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.44% Total : 49.1% |
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