SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 53.9%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 19.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.59%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Progreso |
19.44% ( -0.28) | 26.65% ( 0.43) | 53.9% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 40.91% ( -1.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.35% ( -1.63) | 61.65% ( 1.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.52% ( -1.22) | 81.47% ( 1.22) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.23% ( -1.28) | 46.77% ( 1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.69% ( -0.99) | 82.31% ( 0.99) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.85% ( -0.76) | 23.14% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.98% ( -1.12) | 57.01% ( 1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 3.13% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.36% Total : 19.44% | 1-1 @ 12.03% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.64)2-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.19)Other @ 0.44% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 15.84% ( 0.6) 0-2 @ 11.59% ( 0.19)1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 5.65% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.3% ( -0.19)0-4 @ 2.07% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.44% Total : 53.9% |
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