Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
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