Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
-0.07) 
0.08) 
