Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 48.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
-0.26) 
0.1) 
