SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.89%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
40.53% ( -0.43) | 23.53% ( 0.06) | 35.94% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 63.12% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.33% ( -0.23) | 38.66% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.03% ( -0.25) | 60.97% ( 0.24) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.55% ( -0.29) | 19.45% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.71% ( -0.48) | 51.29% ( 0.48) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.35% ( 0.09) | 21.64% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.23% ( 0.13) | 54.77% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.29% Total : 40.53% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.21% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.37% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.29% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.67% Total : 35.94% |
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