SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 63.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (4.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
63.59% ( 0.23) | 20.3% ( 0.03) | 16.11% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 53.11% ( -0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.84% ( -0.63) | 42.16% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.44% ( -0.63) | 64.56% ( 0.63) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.4% ( -0.13) | 12.6% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.3% ( -0.26) | 38.7% ( 0.27) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.77% ( -0.7) | 39.23% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.06% ( -0.66) | 75.94% ( 0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 2-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.23)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.4% Total : 63.58% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.3% | 0-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.05)Other @ 2% Total : 16.11% |
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