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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 19.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.46%) and 0-1 (7.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 2-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
19.08% ( -0.21) | 19.9% ( -0.13) | 61.01% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 60.84% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.04% ( 0.28) | 34.96% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.06% ( 0.32) | 56.94% ( -0.31) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.46% ( -0.04) | 31.54% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.06% ( -0.05) | 67.94% ( 0.05) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.87% ( 0.18) | 11.13% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.44% ( 0.39) | 35.56% ( -0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.43% Total : 19.08% | 1-1 @ 8.89% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.28% Total : 19.9% | 1-2 @ 9.76% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.46% ( 0)0-1 @ 7.71% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 7.15% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 6.19% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.92% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 3.4% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 2.26% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 1.72% ( 0.04)0-5 @ 1.49% ( 0.03)2-5 @ 0.99% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.83% Total : 61.02% |
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