Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 27.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
2.29) 
-0.38) 
