Flamengo will have been frustrated by drawing two successive league games, allowing Botafogo to extend their lead at the top to 12 points.
However, we expect them to return to winning ways against a potentially fatigued America Mineiro side who, despite advancing in the Copa Sudamericana in midweek in some style, are unlikely to turn a corner quite so quickly after making a disappointing start to their league campaign.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 76.63%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 8.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.33%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.01%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (2.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.33) 
-0.12) 
