As Fluminense are unbeaten at home in this year's Brasileiro, having conceded just four times in seven games, even free-scoring Flamengo will find it tough to break down such a well-organised and motivated side. While Fla boast the league's best attack - scoring at a rate of nearly two goals per game - they may ultimately have to settle for a derby draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
