Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 50.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 23.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
0.15) 
-0.08) 
