SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.41%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 21.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.7%) and 0-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a Heracles win it was 2-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
21.13% ( 0.26) | 21.45% ( -0.14) | 57.41% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 58.68% ( 0.9) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.65% ( 1) | 39.34% ( -1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.32% ( 1.04) | 61.68% ( -1.03) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.86% ( 0.82) | 32.14% ( -0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.38% ( 0.92) | 68.62% ( -0.92) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.48% ( 0.29) | 13.52% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.42% ( 0.57) | 40.58% ( -0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 5.6% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 2.8% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.12% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.5% Total : 21.13% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.11)0-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.45% | 1-2 @ 9.87% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.7% ( -0.22)0-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.32)1-3 @ 6.59% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 5.8% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 3.74% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 3.29% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 2.9% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.08)1-5 @ 1.32% ( 0.04)0-5 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.47% Total : 57.41% |
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