SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 54.51%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.22%) and 1-2 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Instituto win it was 1-0 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | River Plate |
19.86% ( -0.25) | 25.63% ( 0.13) | 54.51% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 43.99% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.11% ( -0.71) | 57.9% ( 0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.39% ( -0.57) | 78.61% ( 0.57) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.91% ( -0.7) | 44.09% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.8% ( -0.58) | 80.2% ( 0.58) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.69% ( -0.23) | 21.31% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.74% ( -0.37) | 54.26% ( 0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 7.7% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.78% Total : 19.86% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 3.77% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.57% Total : 25.63% | 0-1 @ 14.52% ( 0.29) 0-2 @ 11.22% ( 0.14)1-2 @ 9.2% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 5.79% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.74% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 2.24% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.03% Total : 54.5% |
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