Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventude win with a probability of 40.04%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventude win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
