Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventude win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventude win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.88%) and 2-1 (7.63%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (11.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
0.14) 
-0.31) 
