Kilmarnock have a decent record at Rugby Park, even if wins have been a rarity, losing just one of their home games in 2023 — a 3-2 defeat by second-place Rangers.
Hearts have lost their last three on the road but have fared well against Saturday's opponents, and it could be another goal-fest this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 42.49%. A win for Hearts had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Hearts win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.