SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 16.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.53%) and 1-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Latvia win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Latvia | Draw | Croatia |
16.55% ( 0.01) | 22.07% ( 0) | 61.38% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 48.35% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.99% ( 0.02) | 49% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.91% ( 0.02) | 71.08% ( -0.02) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.19% ( 0.03) | 42.8% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.87% ( 0.03) | 79.12% ( -0.02) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.53% ( 0) | 15.47% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.65% ( 0) | 44.34% |
| Score Analysis |
| Latvia | Draw | Croatia |
| 1-0 @ 5.62% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.45% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.38% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.26% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 1.66% Total : 16.55% | 1-1 @ 10.48% 0-0 @ 6.62% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.15% ( 0)Other @ 0.81% Total : 22.06% | 0-1 @ 12.35% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 11.53% 1-2 @ 9.79% ( 0)0-3 @ 7.17% ( -0)1-3 @ 6.09% ( 0)0-4 @ 3.35% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.84% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.58% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.25% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.16% Total : 61.37% |
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