While some smart recruitment means Genoa should not be as toothless as in recent top-flight campaigns, they lack the firepower to fully test a Lazio side that regularly churns out results on home soil. The visitors will start with back-to-back defeats, then, while their hosts make up for an aberration down at Via del Mare.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 47.64%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 25.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.09) 
