Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 49.31%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Rakow Czestochowa had a probability of 25.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Rakow Czestochowa win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.
-0.06) 
0.02) 
