SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.71%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 13.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Luton Town win it was 2-1 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Manchester City |
13.34% ( 0.01) | 17.95% ( 0.01) | 68.71% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 54.23% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.83% ( -0.03) | 37.16% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.63% ( -0.02) | 59.36% ( 0.02) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.14% ( 0.01) | 39.86% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.48% ( 0) | 76.52% ( -0.01) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.17% ( -0.02) | 9.83% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.37% ( -0.03) | 32.63% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 3.84% ( 0) 1-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 1.66% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.37% 3-1 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 1.69% Total : 13.34% | 1-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.92% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.95% | 0-2 @ 10.54% 1-2 @ 9.7% ( 0)0-1 @ 9.09% ( 0)0-3 @ 8.15% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 7.5% ( -0)0-4 @ 4.73% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 4.35% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.45% 0-5 @ 2.19% ( -0)1-5 @ 2.02% ( -0)2-4 @ 2% ( -0)2-5 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 4.07% Total : 68.71% |
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