SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.32%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 19.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.88%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (5.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | RB Leipzig |
56.32% ( -0.06) | 19.7% ( 0.02) | 23.97% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 69.43% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.84% ( -0.07) | 27.16% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.31% ( -0.08) | 47.68% ( 0.08) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.07% ( -0.04) | 9.93% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.14% ( -0.08) | 32.86% ( 0.08) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.09% ( -0.01) | 22.91% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.33% ( -0.02) | 56.67% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.07% ( 0)1-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.67% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.98% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.44% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 3.95% Total : 56.32% | 1-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.49% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 19.7% | 1-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.35% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.24% 1-3 @ 2.8% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.19% 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 2.06% Total : 23.97% |
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