SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 33.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.46%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Manchester City |
33.57% ( -2.11) | 23.71% ( 0.24) | 42.72% ( 1.87) |
| Both teams to score 61.82% ( -1.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.88% ( -1.67) | 40.11% ( 1.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.52% ( -1.74) | 62.48% ( 1.75) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.41% ( -1.91) | 23.59% ( 1.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.34% ( -2.83) | 57.66% ( 2.84) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.9% ( 0.12) | 19.1% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.29% ( 0.2) | 50.71% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.25) 1-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 3.75% ( -0.35)3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.27)3-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.21)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.17)Other @ 3.01% Total : 33.57% | 1-1 @ 10.77% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.34)3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.71% | 1-2 @ 8.92% ( 0.25) 0-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.59)0-2 @ 6.17% ( 0.51)1-3 @ 4.92% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 3.41% ( 0.29)1-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.36% Total : 42.72% |
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