SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 4 | -14 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 4 | -14 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 51.6%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 23.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.94%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 1-0 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luxembourg | Draw | Iceland |
23.22% ( -0.09) | 25.18% ( -0.03) | 51.6% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 49.44% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.07% ( 0.03) | 52.92% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.47% ( 0.03) | 74.53% ( -0.03) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.2% ( -0.07) | 37.79% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.43% ( -0.07) | 74.57% ( 0.07) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.48% ( 0.06) | 20.51% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.99% ( 0.1) | 53% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luxembourg | Draw | Iceland |
| 1-0 @ 7.54% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 5.81% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.49% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.62% Total : 23.22% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0)Other @ 0.87% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 12.28% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 9.47% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.14% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 5% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.59% Total : 51.6% |
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