Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 37.96% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.01%) and 3-2 (4.61%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.

Result
Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne City
40.59% ( 0.28)	21.45% ( -0.01)	37.96% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 71.61% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.22% (

0.03)

27.77% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.54% (

0.04)

48.46% (

-0.04)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.13% (

0.11)

14.87% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.79% (

0.22)

43.2% (

-0.23)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.12% (

-0.1)

15.88% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.89% (

-0.18)

45.1% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Macarthur 40.59%

Melbourne City 37.96%

Draw 21.45%

Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 40.59%	1-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 7.26% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.83% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.36% ( -0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 21.45%	1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.67% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.3% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.8% Total : 37.96%