SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 71.6%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 11.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Macarthur win it was 1-2 (3.5%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Macarthur |
71.6% ( 0.38) | 16.44% ( -0.2) | 11.96% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 55.62% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.67% ( 0.52) | 33.32% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.9% ( 0.59) | 55.1% ( -0.59) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.81% ( 0.21) | 8.19% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.32% ( 0.52) | 28.67% ( -0.52) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.58% ( 0.06) | 39.41% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.89% ( 0.06) | 76.11% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-0 @ 10.1% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 8.07% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.03)6-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.04)6-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.24% Total : 71.59% | 1-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.44% | 1-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.61% Total : 11.96% |
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