Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 62.89%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 18.75% and a draw had a probability of 18.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.51%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 2-1 (4.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
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