SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 77.57%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 6.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.53%) and 3-0 (11.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.17%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malawi would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malawi | Draw | Sao Tome & Principe |
77.57% ( 0.51) | 15.55% ( -0.29) | 6.88% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 37.03% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.89% ( 0.43) | 46.11% ( -0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.59% ( 0.41) | 68.41% ( -0.41) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.02% ( 0.24) | 9.97% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.04% ( 0.55) | 32.96% ( -0.55) |
| Sao Tome & Principe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.13% ( -0.33) | 58.87% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 9.93% ( -0.18) | 90.06% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malawi | Draw | Sao Tome & Principe |
| 2-0 @ 15.6% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 13.53% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 11.98% ( 0.15)2-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.11)5-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.51% Total : 77.56% | 1-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.32% Total : 15.55% | 0-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.86% Total : 6.88% |
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