SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 15.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.02%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Burkina Faso win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Burkina Faso |
61.1% ( -0.05) | 23.66% ( 0.14) | 15.25% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 41.27% ( -0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.94% ( -0.63) | 57.06% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.06% ( -0.51) | 77.95% ( 0.51) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.57% ( -0.25) | 18.43% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.41% ( -0.43) | 49.59% ( 0.43) |
| Burkina Faso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.6% ( -0.5) | 49.41% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.76% ( -0.36) | 84.24% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Burkina Faso |
| 1-0 @ 15.39% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 13.02% ( 0.11)2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 7.34% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 3.1% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.81% Total : 61.09% | 1-1 @ 10.85% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.46% Total : 23.65% | 0-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 15.25% |
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