SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.72%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Villarreal |
48.72% ( 0.13) | 23.07% ( -0.04) | 28.21% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 61.12% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.24% ( 0.1) | 39.76% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.88% ( 0.1) | 62.11% ( -0.1) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.43% ( 0.08) | 16.57% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.64% ( 0.15) | 46.36% ( -0.15) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.26% ( -0.02) | 26.74% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.99% ( -0.02) | 62.01% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Villarreal |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.97% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.66% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.73% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.54% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.41% Total : 48.72% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.07% | 1-2 @ 6.93% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.74% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.19% Total : 28.21% |
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