SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.13%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
49.96% ( -0.07) | 21.4% ( 0.13) | 28.63% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 67.7% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.73% ( -0.71) | 31.27% ( 0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.29% ( -0.84) | 52.71% ( 0.84) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.95% ( -0.27) | 13.05% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.37% ( -0.56) | 39.63% ( 0.56) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.87% ( -0.4) | 22.13% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.49% ( -0.61) | 55.51% ( 0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.11)1-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.12% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 2.07% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.05)5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.29% Total : 49.96% | 1-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 6.81% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.51% Total : 21.4% | 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.31% Total : 28.63% |
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