SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 47.9%. A win for Western United had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
47.9% ( 0.12) | 22.95% ( 0.09) | 29.15% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 62.29% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.48% ( -0.53) | 38.52% ( 0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.18% ( -0.57) | 60.81% ( 0.57) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.59% ( -0.16) | 16.4% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.94% ( -0.28) | 46.05% ( 0.28) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.51% ( -0.4) | 25.48% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.67% ( -0.55) | 60.32% ( 0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.53% Total : 47.9% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.95% | 1-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.46% Total : 29.15% |
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