SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Western United had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
48.32% ( 0.55) | 23.53% ( -0.15) | 28.14% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 59.43% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.03% ( 0.4) | 41.96% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.63% ( 0.4) | 64.37% ( -0.41) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.44% ( 0.37) | 17.56% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.9% ( 0.64) | 48.1% ( -0.65) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.08% ( -0.08) | 27.91% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.46% ( -0.1) | 63.53% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.84% Total : 48.32% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 6.94% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.8% Total : 28.14% |
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