Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 47.15%. A win for Western United had a probability of 27.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Western United win was 0-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
