SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 44.86%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
44.86% ( -0.55) | 24.18% ( -0.02) | 30.96% ( 0.58) |
| Both teams to score 58.98% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.65% ( 0.39) | 43.35% ( -0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.25% ( 0.38) | 65.75% ( -0.38) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.5% ( -0.08) | 19.5% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.62% ( -0.13) | 51.38% ( 0.13) |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.27% ( 0.57) | 26.73% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.01% ( 0.74) | 61.99% ( -0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.13% Total : 44.86% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 5.21% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.96% |
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